The End of the American Dream? The End of Suburbia - 12/26/07

The American dream is to own your own home with the yard, dog and one and half kids.  But does this way of life have a future?  Can suburbia continue while an energy crisis is looming over our heads?  Cheep oil has allowed this way of life to continue for years.  The documentary “End of Suburbia” explains how this dream may soon end.  

In the early 19th century the industries cities of North America were not a nice place to live.  In the 1880’s suburbs began to emerge.  In the late 19th and early 20th century small suburbs start just outside the cities where people would catch a street car going back and forth to the city to work.   In the 1920’s began the automobile suburb which was only interrupted by the Great Depression and World War II.  During the period of 1946 to 1950 there was a housing boom which built millions of new homes in the U.S. creating the template of the automobile suburb.

With the growth of suburbia the demand for car also increased.  Street cars that once transported people to their jobs in the city were bought and dismantled by companies like GM, Firestone, and Standard Oil.  These were replaced by fuel burning vehicles.   Highways for these vehicles were needed and paid for by the government.  The question is can the government continue this expense.  People are commuting to work some driving one hundred miles a day.  Without the automobile and cheep oil suburbia could not exists. 

People now live miles from their job and food only because of cheap oil.  We rely on a seemingly endless supply of cheap fossil fuel to power our automobiles and provide electricity for our homes.  Suburbia uses more energy than any other life style.  Now electrical consumption is peaking.  Blackouts are now being reported in California and in the Northeast. 

Experts say the majority of our electricity is generated by natural gas, but no new plants are being built because there is no additional natural gas available to power them.  Natural gas supplies are also in decline.  We are use to a lifestyle of consuming energy like there is no tomorrow.  The experts in this documentary state current energy supplies cannot be increased and to sustain future growth for the nation we need more energy.

The documentary explains Dr. M. King Hubbard’s "Peak Oil Theory" shown as a bell curve with the top of the bell as the peak of oil production.  Many believe we are at now at the peak of oil production and right away we will see the decline of oil production because of the loss of supply.  Oil is now being forced from the ground using air or water to displace the oil.  As supply goes down the price of oil naturally goes up. 

Oil producers in the Middle East increased the amount of oil reserves they reported by 100% or more so the amount they sold under OPEC rules could be increased so no one knows for sure if the amount of oil they are reporting in their reserves is a true number.  Some believe Saudi’s oil production has peaked and if that is so the world’s production of oil has also peaked. 

Experts are not asking if the peak oil theory is true, but they are asking now when it will happen and many believe very soon.  So what will happen when peak oil gets here?  Trillions lost out of the U.S. stock market, millions of jobs lost, government surplus budgets gone and the middle class gone. 

Canada supplies the U.S. with 15% of all its natural gas which is half of the production of Canada.  If Canada finds it needs that 15% of gas for their own use this will be devastating to the U.S. for its electricity production. 

The American way of life is threatened with this looming energy crisis.  Everything depends on fossil fuel from the food we transport from coast to coast to the stuff we buy that is transported from China.  The cost to grow food will increase rapidly.  We will need to downsize and localize everything.  More food will need to be grown locally.  Local networks of interdependency of goods and services which was destroyed by Wal-Mart will need to be re-established.  This will cause tremendous change in North America from government to the common person.  Life styles will need to be changed. 

60% of the recoverable oil is in the Middle East and the U.S. will defend their access to it.  We are in a war that may last our lifetimes to secure access to oil.  The cost of this is a tremendous drag on the U.S. economy.  The draft may be re-established to fight these wars.

Currently there is no combination of alternative fuels available to run what we are running on oil now.  Some believe hydrogen will save us, but right now it takes more energy to produce hydrogen than you get from the it.  So, using fossil fuel to make hydrogen is not the answer.  Ethanol is a net energy loser it cost more to produce it than the energy is provides. 

Living with less oil will create new urbanism livable walkable communities going back to the old lifestyles.  The new urbanism movement wants to revive the idea the town and the city can be a wonderful place.  In suburbia neighbor does not know neighbor.  Urbanism can bring back humanism to the community.  A strong sense of community and neighborhood could emerge. Property in suburbia may go down in value while property in urban areas may increase.

The experts on the documentary say we will need to live more locally, work from home, make fewer trips in the car.   Local communities will work together to find sources of alternative energy like wind and solar will be needed to survive.

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