Is global warming the wolf at our door - 7/21/06

The little boy who cried “wolf” was finally proved right and was gobbled up as punishment for his earlier pranks. Malthusians have been crying wolf for a couple of centuries. But in global warming they may well have seen a real one. It would be wrong to say their warnings are being ignored. But they are certainly not receiving much practical attention.

Is global warming a wolf at our door? The argument that it is starts with the observation that some atmospheric gases generate a greenhouse — or warming — effect.

Since the 18th century, there has been a big increase in the output of man-made (anthropogenic) CO2, largely as a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels discussed here two weeks ago. Emissions are running at 7-billion tons a year, measured as carbon (just over one ton per person). Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have risen from about 280 parts per million in the 18th century to 380 parts today. This, say the scientists, is higher than in the past 420000 years and possibly the highest in 20-million years (though levels have been higher still in the more distant past). The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1994, with an average global warming of 0,7°C since 1900.

Read more: http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A237130

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